🔗 Share this article

Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.