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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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