War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".